Poland’s path to the World Cup revealed after today’s play-offs drawn and reflection on the international break (and the last year)

Images via @LaczyNasPilka on Twitter

At today’s draw in Zurich, Poland’s opponent’s for March’s World Cup play-offs were revealed. 

In the first semi-final, at which Poland are the designated home team, they will play Albania. Should they win, they face the task of travelling to play either Sweden or Ukraine. 

It was very interesting to hear what Jan Urban made of the draw. He emphasised that a lot, both positive and negative, can change in four months between now and the next international break. Urban was also keen to suggest that whilst both games (should Poland win the first of them) would be tough, they should be considered favourites against Albania given they are on home turf. 

When you consider Poland’s recent history of qualifying through the play-offs, it’s good. Having beaten Sweden to get to the last World Cup in relatively comfortable circumstances, as well as the far more tense victory on penalties over the Welsh to get to last year’s Euros, it’s a really good omen. 

Especially considering also that Poland have strong records even in the past few, not so consistent, years of playing all three teams. Save for the away loss to Albania which signalled the end of Fernando Santos’ tenure as Selekcjoner, there is recent history of success. 

In my opinion, I think that Poland are of similar strength to all of the teams they are going to or will potentially face. Sweden’s attack is obviously very strong, but at least three of those storied players are adapting to new clubs right now and even though four months is a very long time in football, they will also still be adapting to a new manager in Graham Potter at national level too. 

I have to say that whilst I enjoy seeing the more democratised system of World Cup qualifying, meaning we are seeing a wider variety of teams from more diverse parts of the world, it does put teams from stronger confederations such as UEFA at a disadvantage. 

Whilst obviously the play-off draw was the big headline news of the day (save for the reports that Marek Papszun may become Legia coach), I’d also like to reflect on the past international break for Poland as a whole, as well as the entirety of Urban’s time in charge so far plus where we are compared to this time 12 months ago. 

I’ve seen a lot of discussion, particularly in light of the fact that this will be the first tournament cycle (and play-offs) without Wojciech Szczęsny, that none of Poland’s three main goalkeepers fill pundits with much confidence. I think it’s fair to say after Monday night Bartłomiej Drągowski won’t be starting a whole lot of games for the national team, but Kamil Grabara is still young and promising, not to mention that Łukasz Skorupski has been good more often than he has been bad during his albeit brief time as Poland’s number one. 

Indeed on account of this last brace of games without Skorupski, it does feel a little as though we’re underestimating him and suggesting he is not a clear first-choice between the goalposts, when to me at least it’s pretty obvious he is.

When it comes to the defence and the calamity that playing Malta was compared to the composure shown against the Dutch, it was interesting to hear Urban suggest that they’re still searching for a third “definitive” centre back to play alongside Jan Bednarek and Jakub Kiwior. Given Przemysław Wiśniewski was not as good on Monday as he had been up to that point, and Jan Ziółkowski is not getting the requisite amount of playing time yet at Roma, it does seem like a bit of an open gap. 

For what it’s worth, I think the competition should absolutely be between those two named in the paragraph above. Even if Ziółkowski is not playing in his club, he does look like the future of the national team in that position based on what we’ve seen over the past year at club level and the fleeting glimpses we saw last month and against Holland on Friday. Wiśniewski is the more experienced and probably more athletic option, but he seemed a bit rusty against Malta and his club isn’t in great form, even if he is one of the better players in that Spezia side. 

When it comes to the midfield and the wing-backs, I think it is clear as to what could or maybe should be the players in those roles. Even though he made the mistake for the goal against Holland, Michał Skóraś enjoyed a fruitful two games in this last week. You could argue very convincingly that the outperformed Nicola Zalewski, who very much had a pair of games to forget and given his looming suspension against Albania, it’s good to see Skóraś showing his potential in a Poland shirt. 

On the other side, we all know the quality Matty Cash possesses and he has most definitely been able to show it in these last few international breaks, even if he didn’t play against Malta and got a bit tired as the second half wore on last Friday. Paweł Wszołek doesn’t seem the most convincing back-up, but he still scored on Monday and he has the versatility to be a squad option. Hopefully the situation at Legia improves as that remains the concern when considering both Wszołek and Bartosz Kapustka’s place in the Poland squad. 

It was another great display of how important Piotr Zieliński can be to the national team, given his goal contributions against the Maltese or the deeper playmaking role he did so well against the Dutch. On the flip side, the aforementioned Kapustka wasn’t so effective and nor was Bartosz Slisz. Suspended for the first game and clearly not in match rhythm for the second, Slisz is perhaps not a nailed-on starter for Poland which thanks to the idea of “balance” we were suggesting that he had to be. 

Now, I’ve often been critical of Sebastian Szymański’s performances in a Poland shirt, but the last few games have perhaps shown he is more important than many of us thought. Never mind needing “balance”, what Zieliński (and in flashes, Kapustka) so capably showed is that creativity should be the order of the day in Poland’s midfield, and thanks to the athleticism that Szymański can give, he could provide the legs as well. The football Urban is getting Poland to play shows that you don’t need a traditional defensive midfield player, which is just as well given the national team is lacking one of real standout quality at this moment in time. 

As for the attack, Robert Lewandowski and Jakub Kamiński are showing themselves to be a fantastic duo, with Kamiński providing the speed an Lewandowski attracting the defenders and opening up the space for Kamiński to run into, so deftly displayed during Poland’s goal against Holland. 

Unlike previous recent Selekcjoners, we don’t really need to temper our expectations with Jan Urban. The football is good, and the results are there to match after a wholly successful autumn. Compare this to how the year began under Michał Probierz, or indeed how 2024 finished under the same manager, and it’s polar opposites both in terms of what we’re seeing on and off the pitch. 

As everyone from Urban to journalists is at pains to point out, four months is a long time in football, but there is reason to relish the challenge that these World Cup play-offs provide. Whilst I wouldn’t suggest Poland are massive favourites, the current form should be considered a real advantage compared to the three other teams and whilst this is subject to change, Urban’s Poland have shown us enough to feel cautiously optimistic over the winter. 

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