Analysing Poland’s potential World Cup group stage (should they get there)

Images via @LaczyNasPilka on Twitter

Last Friday evening saw the excruciating two hour long draw to determine the World Cup group stages. A truly embarrassing and wholly overlong event, and I think those of us who speak about football would be united in that viewpoint.

Well, that’s me never getting invited to any Fifa events. Moving on, we did just about find out who Poland would potentially play in next summer’s tournament, as in-between the excesses there was actually a set of teams being drawn.

The group featuring the winner of the play-offs containing Poland was Group F, which definitely will contain Holland, Japan and Tunisia. Now, were Poland to get to the World Cup, this represents a tough but not impossible draw. 

Holland are a familiar opponent whom Poland have earned two very respectable draws against in the last few months. It’s hard to say what might change between now and next June for Ronald Koeman’s squad, but you can imagine it would be more or less the same as the one which Poland played in Jan Urban’s first game in charge back in September. 

Japan qualified very handsomely for this tournament, and they have a number of quality players in all areas of the pitch. Their midfield is particularly rich with quality, and as we saw in their last World Cup appearance Japan are very capable of beating nations with strong reputations. 

Tunisia on the other hand are more of an unknown quantity for many, something even Jan Urban was readily admitting following the draw last week. The commonplace belief will be that this is where Poland could pick up points, but as we all know it is dangerous to underestimate an opponent, particularly in tournament football. 

The games are scheduled to take place in Monterrey, Houston and Dallas, with at least two of them occurring at times less than ideal for a European audience. Poland would be playing Tunisia first, followed by Holland and lastly Japan. You do feel that if Poland qualify, it will be a tough but not impossible task to pick up the points required to progress, especially when you factor in that this new expanded World Cup will see several of the better third-placed teams enter the knockout rounds.

Of course, there is the not-so-small matter of the play-offs first in order for Poland to get to the World Cup, facing Albania and potentially then either Ukraine or Sweden. As the weeks go by from when this was first announced, I’ve started to feel more and more confident that Poland can succeed. 

Recent history is definitely on Poland’s side, albeit their last home win over Albania would be three years ago come next spring. If even Fernando Santos’ Poland managed to come out of that victorious, you imagine the current iteration would be able to do the same. 

As for potentially playing Ukraine or Sweden, again recent-ish history leads you to favour Poland. Even if you dismiss beating Ukraine in a pre-Euro friendly last summer, they did not have as good a tournament as expected and Sweden have looked poorer than many predicted of late. 

Granted, Ukraine still have very good players and Sweden’s attack is particularly fearsome, not to mention having a new coach in charge. That being said you consider the relatively strong form Poland have managed to end 2025 in and perhaps we should be healthily optimistic that these play-offs, whilst tough, can be navigated successfully. 

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